PBL (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, https://www.pbl.nl/) has carried out a scenario analysis on the extent and impacts of changes in land condition over the next 30 years (until 2050) by the UNCCD (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification). This report is to be part of the Global Land Outlook that will be presented in September 2017 in China (https://www2.unccd.int/actions/global-land-outlook-glo).
The scenario results provide maps of change in land use, demand of land for food and water, land condition and degradation, population growth, induced effect of current and adapted policies etc. To assess the results and interpret them with the latest scientific knowledge available, PBL has invited several institutes to contribute to their own assessment: Wageningen University, Utrecht University, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Wageningen Economic Research and ISRIC World Soil Information.
ISRIC contributed to the chapter on the change in the condition of land and its future developments, the indicators used and the assessment of the results compared to current literature and knowledge on the subject.
Background
The Global Land Outlook is a platform and a report to assess the extend and the possible impacts of the various competing claims on land for food production, bioenergy and timber production and a growing population, that is further affected by climate change and land degradation. It quantifies these demands where possible and assesses the impacts that this will have on agricultural production, availability of (fresh) water (for food production and other uses), biodiversity and land use. The 3 scenario projections in the policy report explore these effects and allow to assess policy choices related to the global sustainability challenges and ambitions.
The PBL study is related to work on the Land Degradation Neutrality concept and UN Sustainable Development Goal 15.3. Projects at ISRIC on these topics include:
- Developing baselines for Land Degradation Neutrality target setting in Namibia
- Preventing and Remediating Degradation of Soils in Europe through Land Care (RECARE)
- Land Use Planning for Enhanced Resilience of Landscapes (LAUREL)
- Review on global assessments of land and ecosystem degradation
- Modelling of soil degradation and its impact on ecosystem services globally
- Desertification Mitigation and Remediation of Land (DESIRE)
Results
The policy report ‘Exploring future changes in land use and land condition and the impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity: Scenarios for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook’ was published in August 2017: https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/exploring-future-changes-in-land-use
The Global Land Outlook is expected to be published in September 2017: https://www2.unccd.int/actions/global-land-outlook-glo