climate scenario (2071-2080)
Future climate change is subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Predictions are difficult due to the high complexity and interrelations of the influencing factors and feedback mechanisms. It should be noted that in the 1970’s there still was a concern about a rapidly approaching new ice age due to human influence on the climate. As an alternative to such uncertain predictions, the IPCC has developed long-term scenarios for emissions of important Greenhouse Gases (GHG). The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) presents a set of four “scenario families” or storylines representing a wide range of emissions, and based on different driving forces, being demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments and assumptions regarding policy, and public behaviour.